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December 13, 2004
Obviously my January stock market forecast for 2004 was way off. The so-called "soft patch" for the economy was the killer.
At this point, my expectation for the remainder of 2004 is that Nasdaq could rise as much as another 250 points, or fall by as much, depending on the evolution of the economic outlook. My "central" forecast is somewhere between a 5% loss and a 5% gain. Essentially, there's no reason to believe that Nasdaq is more likely to go in either direction over the next couple of weeks. But I'll go ahead and go out on the limb and forecast 2,250 as my "bet" for the closing level on December 31, 2004.
Previous forecast: January 6, 2004
Updated: December 11, 2004 02:14:47 PM -0500
Copyright © 2004 John W. Krupansky d/b/a Base Technology